A new analysis warns that endometrial (uterine) cancer is on track to become an even more deadly example of cancer inequity in the United States, with Black women projected to bear a disproportionate share of the burden. While incidence and mortality for many cancers have fallen in recent years, uterine cancer stands out as one of the few malignancies where both are rising.
Researchers used the Columbia University Uterine Cancer Model to project trends through 2050 and found that incidence-based mortality could be nearly three times higher in Black women than in white women by midcentury. Current data already show that Black women have a death rate from uterine cancer about twice as high as women of other races or ethnicities. The model estimates that incidence will climb from 56.8 to 86.9 cases per 100,000 for Black women, compared with an increase from 57.7 to 74.2 per 100,000 for white women.
The study points to multiple drivers of this widening gap. Black women more often develop aggressive, non-endometrioid tumors, face delayed diagnoses that lead to later-stage disease, and experience delays in treatment. Projections suggest that if obesity continues to rise and hysterectomy rates decline, uterine cancer incidence and mortality will climb even more sharply for both Black and white women.
Stress tests of the model suggest that effective screening and early intervention could substantially reduce disease burden, with potential benefits lasting more than a decade for both groups. The lead author underscores “an urgent need to develop strategies to reduce the incidence of uterine cancer and to promote early detection,” a call that carries particular weight for Black women facing sharply higher risks.
See: “Study Predicts Uterine Cancer Incidence May Significantly Increase by 2050″ (September 30, 2024)
