Dramatic gains in life expectancy that once reshaped life in wealthy nations are faltering, raising urgent questions for communities already burdened by shorter lives and higher disease rates. “The unprecedented increase in life expectancy we achieved in the first half of the 20th century appears to be a phenomenon we are unlikely to achieve again in the foreseeable future,” said lead author Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, whose team analyzed mortality data from 23 high‑income, low‑mortality countries using the Human Mortality Database and six independent forecasting methods.
For people born between 1900 and 1938, average life expectancy leapt from 62 to about 80 years, a gain of roughly five and a half months per generation. Those advances were powered by rapid declines in infant and child mortality as medical innovation, improved sanitation, and higher living standards took hold. But for generations born between 1939 and 2000, progress slowed to just two and a half to three and a half months per generation, depending on the model.
Corresponding author José Andrade notes, “We forecast that those born in 1980 will not live to be 100 on average, and none of the cohorts in our study will reach this milestone,” warning that future gains must come from better survival at older ages—a far tougher challenge. That slowdown threatens to hit minority populations hardest, because communities that already face higher burdens of chronic disease, financial insecurity, and unequal access to care have less cushion when longevity growth stalls. As policymakers rethink saving, retirement, and long‑term care, the findings underscore how stalled progress in life expectancy can entrench and magnify racial health disparities instead of closing them.
See: “Life expectancy gains have slowed sharply, study finds” (October 27, 2025)
