Nearly half of all American adults will be living with obesity by 2035, but the burden falls heaviest on Black women, who face obesity rates approaching 57 percent, according to new national projections published in JAMA.
The analysis found that 42.5 percent of U.S. adults were living with obesity in 2022, up sharply from 19.3 percent in 1990. That translates to 107 million Americans currently affected, a number expected to climb to 126 million within the next decade.
Racial disparities in obesity prevalence are substantial and persistent. In 2022, obesity rates by race, ethnicity, and sex ranged from 40.1 percent for non-Hispanic White males to 56.9 percent for non-Hispanic Black females. These differences represent significant health inequities that vary considerably across states and within communities.
Geographic patterns compound racial disparities, with prevalence highest in Midwestern and Southern states. Within-state disparities by race and ethnicity were larger for females than males, suggesting that Black women and Hispanic women face compounded disadvantages based on both race and gender.
The analysis also revealed troubling trends among younger adults, with large increases in obesity prevalence among the youngest adult age groups, especially for females. Middle-aged adults currently show the highest obesity rates overall.
Researchers examined data from over 11 million U.S. participants across multiple national health surveys, using advanced modeling to generate detailed population-level estimates necessary for informing health policy and reducing disparities.
See: “US State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity by Race and Ethnicity From 1990 to 2022 and Forecasted to 2035” (January 28, 2026)Â
